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Good morning,
A bigger order is not always a better first order. CUTS founder Steven Borrelli says the brand let average order value fall by about $50, while its customer acquisition cost fell by about $65.
Today:
We look at the offer behind that trade. Then we put your own Black Friday offers through a simulation that tests what happens when traffic costs and conversion change.
And tomorrow at 9 a.m. Central, I’m hosting a free Black Friday Funnel Workshop. We’ll walk through how ads, offers and landing pages work together. Save your free seat here.
Today’s Deep Dive
Why CUTS Let Order Value Fall to Win Cheaper Customers
A $190 order sounds better than a $140 order.
But what if acquiring the first costs $120, while acquiring the second costs $55?
In a Sweat Equity interview, CUTS founder Steven Borrelli said average order value moved from roughly $190 to $140 as the brand changed its offer mix. Customer acquisition cost moved from roughly $120 to $55. These are his approximate figures, not audited results.
From the founder’s interview. Product, shipping and other costs are not included.
A smaller basket changed the acquisition equation
Looking only at AOV, the new offer seems to give up $50. Looking at CAC as well, it saves about $65 to acquire an order.
That does not tell us CUTS’ profit. We do not know its product costs, shipping costs or the lifetime value of these customers. It does tell us why optimizing for the largest first order can hide a better acquisition path.
The ad makes the entry offer concrete
Here is one CUTS ad currently sending traffic to its four-pack page. Four AO Curve tees. $99. The creative shows the products and the price in one glance.
One live CUTS bundle ad captured in Funnel Library on November 9.
The destination page keeps the same $99 four-pack offer in view. Shoppers can choose a four- or six-pack, then pick sizes and colors. The ad has already made the value case; the page makes the bundle easy to configure.
The matching page. The ad’s price and product carry through to the buying decision.
This live ad and page show how the offer is presented today. They do not prove that this specific creative produced the CAC Borrelli described.
What to copy
Test an easier first purchase alongside your current offer. Compare both groups on:
Customer acquisition cost
First-order contribution after product, shipping, fees and discounts
Repeat purchases over a period that makes sense for your product
Then decide which offer buys you the better customer relationship.
AOV tells you the size of the first order. It does not tell you what that customer cost to win.
Last Chance: Free Black Friday Funnel Workshop Tomorrow
Wednesday, November 11 · 9 a.m. Central · Free
Your discount is only one part of the sale. The ad has to give someone a reason to click. The landing page has to turn that interest into an order.
Tomorrow, I’ll break down the ads, offers and landing pages behind seven brands featured in our $100M playbook, then show you how to apply the same thinking to your Black Friday campaign.
Come with one product. Leave with:
A stronger Black Friday offer than “X% off”
Three ad angles for different shoppers
A clear plan for the landing page each ad needs
The first tests to run before increasing spend
Free live workshop with Kaushal Pratap, founder of DTC Daily.
We’re live tomorrow. Save your free seat →
While You Were Building
In the Headlines
Amazon starts Black Friday Week on November 19. Its deal event runs through November 30, with new themed drops each day. If you sell there, check your promo dates and stock against a longer event, not just Black Friday weekend.
Supermetrics brings campaign changes into AI chat. From today, it says users can adjust budgets or pause ads across seven platforms through Claude or ChatGPT. Set approval rules before giving an assistant permission to make live changes.
Google publishes its Holiday 100. The gift guide is built from this year’s Search trends. Compare its category language with the words on your gift pages; it is a demand signal, not a sales forecast.
Apple adds retention messages to subscription cancellation. App subscriptions can now show text, an image or an offer in the cancellation flow. If you run a subscription, ask what a customer needs to hear at the moment they decide to leave.
Shopify makes app access easier to inspect. Settings → Apps now surfaces activity, sensitive-data permissions and security status. Review any app you no longer use before the holiday rush.
On Socials
1/ Ben Radack on testing 100 ads at once. He shows how he groups ads by creator, concept and persona across three ad sets. My takeaway: label each variation before launch, or a winning ad may leave you guessing which idea worked.
Daily Growth Rep
💸 Today’s Growth Rep: Find the Offer That Looked Better Than It Was
Pull last BFCM’s orders by discount code and compare the refund rate for your top three offers.
Why this works:
Revenue at checkout can make a promotion look stronger than the money you kept.
A high-return offer may attract a purchase that customers later regret.
Your rep:
Export orders, discounts and refunds for last year’s event.
Group orders by the promotion used. Calculate net revenue after refunds per offer.
Pick one offer whose ranking changes once refunds are included. Decide what you will change this year.
Report: “Our best-looking offer was ___ at checkout, but ___ after refunds.
In Case You Missed It
How to Build a Black Friday Offer Around Your Target AOV works back from acquisition and order costs to a purchase amount your offer needs to support. Read it before you model discounts and bundles below.
Quick Poll
How useful did you find today’s newsletter?
Can AI Find the Black Friday Offer That Survives an Expensive Click?
You can calculate the margin on a 25% discount in a minute. That number is only one outcome.
What if your ad costs rise? What if the bundle converts a little worse, but leaves more money per order? What if a gift lifts conversion, then wipes out the extra contribution?
We built a workflow that asks for your product costs, fees, shipping, past ad performance and the offers you are considering. Then it uses code to simulate thousands of possible Black Friday outcomes for each offer.
Here is what that looks like as the traffic and order results change. The figures in this animation are illustrative, not a forecast for a real store.
Illustrative simulation: each dot is one possible outcome. The results are not a forecast for a real store.
The useful answer is not “Offer A has the highest margin.” It is: How often does each offer make money, how bad can the downside get, and how much extra conversion would the discount need to earn its keep?
That last number is the one most offer calculators never show you.
Build your BFCM offer simulator
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