What customer purchase gaps reveal about future churn

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Most customers do not disappear overnight.

They slow down first. That slowdown is the moment you need to catch, because it is the best time to send win-back emails.

Research shows that 45% of subscribers who receive a win-back email will open future emails from your brand.

So what’s a win-back email?

It’s a short email sequence sent to customers who are about to stop buying.

The goal is to bring them back before they fully disengage.

When to send the win-back email?

The key signal to watch is purchase latency.

Purchase latency is simply the time between one purchase and the next.

Start by looking at your entire customer base and calculating the average time between repeat purchases.

This shows you what normal buying behavior looks like for engaged customers.

Once you know that normal gap, watch for customers who exceed it.

For example, if most repeat buyers reorder within 45 days, a customer who has not purchased in 60 or 70 days is no longer behaving normally.

If you plot this data, it often looks like this.

In this example, the time between purchases increases sharply after the third or fourth purchase.

That is the moment to act.

Sending a win-back email here works because the customer still recognizes your brand and is likely delaying a decision, not rejecting you.

If you wait longer, the customer becomes inactive and much harder to recover.

If you email too early, the message feels unnecessary.

Win-back emails work best when they are triggered by a clear change in buying behavior, not by an arbitrary calendar date.

👉Check out the top 5 examples of win-back emails

Credit: Rejoiner

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One brand created 21 high-converting campaigns in 14 minutes using Magicals.

Early users are seeing up to 8x return on email revenue with zero increase in effort.

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Post Credit: Sam Saifi

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